Category Archives: Commentary Blogs

Statistics and COVID

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I have been struggling to decide whether to blog on this subject of statistics and COVID since January. Now that much of the globe is in some type of lock down, quarantine or ignorance, it seems more necessary. Not that my viewpoint is any better than many other posts. There has been an extensive misinformation, or misunderstanding of statistics, not helped by the media. There attitude at last seems to be changing to better reporting, rather than the fear they like to envisage.

Lets start with some basic facts:

World Population as at 2015 (census dependent) 7.35 Billion that is 7,350,000,000 with forecast to be over 7.7 by 2020

Actual confirmed deaths 18:35 on 20th March 2020 due to virus according to WHO as listed on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 11,188

Actual confirmed mortality rate is therefore 11,200 divided by 7.35 billion which is

0.00015238%

Because the population is likely to be higher than last full statistics the rate is actually lower on confirmed death cases.

So where the scare stories of 1% or 20% and any number in between come from is unclear. As a comparison TB caused 3 million deaths in 2016. Clearly this horrible virus spreads and kills and the deaths are tragic but dying from TB is still dying.

The 1% or higher numbers are actually an infected mortality rate. i.e. this requires a confirmed case and death assigned to COVID-19. Both numbers used for this are equally dodgy. The number of deaths is probably an underestimate e.g. deaths that are caused by it but not medically linked. However, the likely cases are a massive underestimate. Now we need to look at subsets of subsets of data, none of which are without error.

We start with World’s population 7.5 billion and work down from same source

  • immune not a carrier – unknown
  • carrier no symptoms – unknown
  • carrier minimal symptoms 166,000
  • Carrier medium symptoms – hospital 159,000
  • Carrier serious/critical – ICU – hospital 8,000
  • Death 11,200

As a comparator the UK has 660,000 deaths each year in population of 65 million and UK has had 177 deaths assigned to COVID-19 although all are reported as with underlying conditions

A sense of perspective is needed

One Morning In The Office Take 9

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One Morning In The Office – a satire @realDonaldTrump

"Vlad, how are you? We haven't chatted in ages. Why are you laughing?"
"Ha, Ha, Ha, Oh Don, Don, Don my friend you are so funny."
"Why? What have I done?"
"Your Tweets of course. Your ability to spread disbelief and confusion are second to none. Even Xi is impressed.
Bashar is getting one of his universities to start teaching it. And Erdoğan is especially impressed."
"He wanted me to withdraw."
"So, did I."
"Well I have."
"Yes a huge success for us."
"I'm protecting American lives."
"Of course you are. Anyway about your impeachment."
"Fake news!"
"This is me Vlad, not some journalist.'
"Sorry."
"A word of advice?"
"What?"
"Cut down the number of people listening to your phone calls."
"Why?"
"They take records."
"Wrong records."
"We have the tapes."
"I dispute them."
"Good that's the right approach. Now, have you seen the new list."
"Which list? You send so many?"
"The list for National Security Advisor and Secretary of State."
"I haven't sacked them yet."
"Not this month. Anyway keep the Ukraine angle going as long as possible and ignore all those security briefings."
"I am. How are the election plans going."
"You don't need to know but our advertising budget is doing well. We've ben actively supporting some Democrats."
"Why?"
"So you can claim interference once they finally decide which id... which candidate to stand against you."
"But won't that help them."
"Only to get Hilary back in the game, I thought you wanted that?"
"Biden may be bigger issue."
"Don't worry about him, we have some more Son stories to leak."
"Good."
"Do you have the interview answers for your next UK interview."
"Why another UK one?"
"They are having another election."
"I thought that was Israel, Bennie asked for my support."
"We may have to let Ben go."
"Why?"
"Haven't you seen the news. He may get locked up."
"But I haven't asked for that."
"Has anyone you wanted to be locked up actually been locked up?"
"No."
"Has anyone you didn't want locked up been locked up?"
"Yes."
"You really need to get a grip on the legal system there. I thought Ruddi was working on that."
"He's got bogged down in Ukraine."
"I know how he feels."

We Won’t Be Asked To Vote On…

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Some things that we won’t be promised or asked to vote on, by the main parties in the election

  1. Reduction in MPs from 650 to 500 with attendant boundary changes
  2. MPs deselected that do not take up seats e.g. NI parties that don’t
  3. Proportional representation introduction outside NI – mentioned in Lib Dems last time but not by main parties
  4. Lords reform – to voted for chamber (power away from House of Commons)
  5. Fixed term limits for Prime Minister or MPs e.g. See Costa Rica 4 years for President 8 years for MP equivalent
  6. Tax take must equal or be more than government spend and borrowing cost – no deficit increase
  7. Any hope that any manifesto might get implemented with thought for unintended consequences – see 6 for spending commitments
  8. Understanding by any MP of unintended consequences see 6 and 7
  9. Understanding by any political party that it takes years to train doctors, nurses, teachers therefore you cannot magic more in a couple of years unless imported from abroad thus denying other countries’ their health/teaching
  10. That Donald Trump has no vote in UK Election, nor does any other foreign politician (including EU). Their opinions are irrelevant, and should be ignored especially tweets
  11. If you don’t vote for who you want to represent you do not complain when someone else is elected – introduce compulsory voting
  12. Challenge those who are asking for your vote how they will vote on the issues. Sue them for breach of contract if they don’t!

Fake or Real News and Headlines

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Fake or real news is seldom out of the headlines. The never-ending debate on Brexit continues to polarise opinion with now the new PM adding to the fray. His request to the Queen to prorogue the UK Parliament has been treated with varying degrees of support or hostility based entirely on the already dived opinion line of Remain or leave. I wish the Remain camp would stop arguing their opposition is against no deal when they voted against a deal negotiated with 27 other countries. At least the Lib Dems are honest enough to admit that.

My concern is in the so called impartiality of figures who should know better and yet claim precedent or lack of it. But I’ll start with the BBC coverage and one headline in particular.
Yesterday BBC news and web site reported the following

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49493885

“Pound Falls” is the less of a headline than BBC news which headlined at 18:00 “Pound crashes” on news. The web sites now has volatile rather than crashes. So what has happened to the pound this month – think I may have mentioned this before

No headline at all about the pound’s rise against the dollar. In particular, since the 6th August but a half cent drop on one day is a crash. What happened on the 6th? Not a lot as far as I can tell. Personally, it looks great as I’ve just had to buy some dollars for a forthcoming trip and I’ve had a better rate this week than last. When I heard crash I was worried my next purchase would be harder, but the headline means it must be not that. I’m better buying this week than I was at the start of the month – a real transaction by the way.

Really BBC – must do better

Now to the meat of the subject – sorry vegans the main point then… The word unprecedented.(dict’ definition never having happened or existed in the past

As in the Prorogation of Parliament is unprecedented or sometimes with the caveat of in recent history with no definition of recent which given nearly 1,000 years of Parliament is hard to judge.

Prorogue of parliament

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/occasions/prorogation/

The longest parliamentary sessions since 1945.

This is the amount of time for a parliamentary session i.e. the current session being prorogued is quite long, and the longest since the World War II

The next use of unprecedented refers to the length of time Parliament is Prorogued in this case 23 days. If we caveat with recent. Then the longest most recent was 1997 for 19 days. There have been much longer periods in history. Elizabeth 1st the first had no sitting parliament for over 3 years. 23 days is not unprecedented. Many governments even since universal adult suffrage from 1928 (after the equalisation of the voting ages for men and women) have used various tricks to get their plans through. This has included doing the opposite of now i.e. Prorogation and adding an additional session to prevent House of Lords interference (Labour 1948 to allow nationalisation of Iron and Steel without Lords amendment), or as in the case of 1997, to prevent difficult questions in the House of Commons – The cash For Question Scandal. In both cases, the government did not resign, nor was there an election. After the break, there was a new Queen’s Speech and a new Parliamentary session. As is proposed to start on 13th October, which I believe is still before 31st October and therefore, MPs still have time to pass or amend legislation.

the lack of historical context, despite our long history, continues to be troubling. The NOW generation infects our media reporting. We see this is numerous ways from sports results ignoring decades of previous results just because a competition name changed, to the use of the word democracy, but only when applied to the speaker’s narrow definition of the vote they mean. I.e Johnson is undemocratic because he replace May, whereas Brown replacing Blair, was democratic neither were unprecedented or undemocratic. They are the rules we have lived by for centuries.

In the case of Brexit, the UK Sovereign Parliament voted to leave the EU (without a deal) on 1st Feb 2017 as the European Union Bill. It was supported by the Labour leadership, by 498 votes to 114. This remains the default legal position. Since then the same Parliament has rejected 3 times the negotiated deal, and merely passed a delaying law now to 31st Oct or rather a delay requesting the EU to grant an extension.

But let’s not let facts get in the way of a good story

EU Election – Context

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Now we’ve just had a ridiculous EU election in UK electing 73 MEPS to go back to Brussels (approx cost £150m). 35% turnout is pathetic but not surprising given state of politics.

Result Brexit party formed 6 weeks ago with 32%. Lib Dems (Pro remain) in 2nd with 20%

Lots of rubbish combining variations of votes to show that overall the country believes their own opinion based on zero fact.

No one knows why someone voted a particular way.

Labour, the official opposition lost ground. The Conservatives (allegedly the government) lost even more. The Greens increase (they are remain but for Green)

In reality not all Greens are Remain, not all Conservatives are leave. Labour are all over the place and even the former director of comms for Tony Blair, Alistair Campbell stated he voted Lib Dem because he was remain and he did not know what his own party was for.

UKIP was destroyed (by Brexit party it is presumed)

Scotland voted SNP

Northern Ireland hvoted along sectarian line with some gain for the middle ground Alliance Party but not enough to win a seat. Wales voted Brexit number 1 party

In parliament we’ll have a new Prime Minister soon. The rest of the arithmetic stays the same. Impasse. Next deadline 31st Oct

I have no idea what will happen.

I believe it was the lack of reform, the ever closer union agenda, and the underlying corruption that drove the UK to vote out in the first place.

Remainers continue to claim that immigration was the reason and perhaps it was for some but they miss the point.

The rise of the Greens also reflects society’s concern with real big picture stuff i.e. the fate of the planet. Big increase in Germany and UK from 2014. This has been claimed by Remain as support for that cause. I believe it is wider than that.

The Netherlands appears to have bucked the trend for movement left and right after several recent elections where the right appeared to be gaining, whereas Italy and Spain showed the same hollowing out as UK.

I also compared this EU election with 2009. Nearly all comparisons have been made with 2014. The movement for Lib Dems can then be seen in context.

In 2014 the Lib Dems were badly hurt (as they were in the 2015 General Election) by association with the coalition government and in particular the internal to UK position on Tuition fees. They won 13.3% then and 20.3% this time – a 7% increase. In the 2010 General election they won 22% and the 2015 Gen Election only 7.9% – more a recovery to normality in the longer term.

Brexit did not exit then let alone a party that has just won 32% of the vote. The then exit party UKIP won 16%. Labour in Government under Gordon Brown in 2009 won 15.2% compared to 14.1% this time. Conservatives now in Government (just) won 27.4% compared to 9.1% now. The Greens won 7.8% in 2009 up to 12.1% this time.
Turnout then was 34% and this time 37%

Not quite the sea change being described by Remain (for Lib Dems) or Brexit.

One Morning In The Office Take 8

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One Morning In The Office – a satire @realDonaldTrump

“Sir, you asked for the preprepared national Emergency speeches.”

Thanks, “I’ll rehearse them now – want them to sound punchy.”

“It’s a national emergency. The USA is being attacked I tell you. It’s whole way of life is under threat and the wall is the only thing that will stop it…”

“Thought I had done that one.”

“You have Mr President.”

“OK…

  1. The whole country is being attacked I tell you a cabal of federal investigators is destroying the nation and needs to be stopped I have ordered the National Guard to deploy to Quantico to prevent the FBI invading Washington
  2. The whole country is being attacked I tell you. Swarms of Iranian troops are at this moment tunnelling from Persia into our territory and our only option is to build a wall across the Atlantic to prevent them getting in – I’ll only need another $500bn
  3. The whole country is being attacked by the vicious press I tell you. I have therefore declared a state of emergency and instructed a new Executive Branch Department reporting directly to me to don their new black uniforms and patrol the offices of all media outlets especially CNN and NYT to ensure that this propaganda is not spread. The alleged ‘journalists’ and their families will be sent for special training in brand new labour camps I am ordering constructed next to suitable rail yards. Thus improving job prospects for hard working Americans everywhere
  4. The whole country is under attack from conspiracy elements inside our major democratic institutions who are refusing to pass the laws this nation needs. I have therefore disbanded Congress and the Senate and ensured our representatives safety by getting them to join the alleged journalists. This will save America Billions”

The Longer View

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We need to sometimes take a longer view. The media (social and mainstream) would lead most people to believe that the world has never been so dangerous or that governments have never been so incompetent or evil. Whether its the latest news on Brexit, Trump’s Tweets, Putin’s evil intent or the chaos that is Syria and Yemen. There appears to be a tendency to ignore even recent history.

It seems apt that I take a personal perspective. This year marks the 40th year (in August) since I entered full time employment. I left school at 17 (Much to my parents annoyance) half way through my A Levels. It was unusual then to even take A Levels. University was for less that 20% of the population. I was in the vast majority. The UK was a very different place. A Labour Government was in charge under Jim Callaghan as Prime Minister and his infamous ‘Winter of Discontent’ was to follow that winter.

I had dreams of being a rock star (don’t laugh) instead, I became an Electronics Technician earning (via a weekly brown envelope holding the cash) £29 per week. Equivalent to about £160 in today’s inflation affected money. The inflation rate was 7.8%. It would rise higher along with interest rates.

The UK was known as the sick man of Europe which was the trading block known as the EEC or Common Market as it was commonly known. The UK had joined the EEC with Denmark and Ireland in 1973 – there was no referendum. It did have a referendum to remain in 1975.

The troubles were 10 years old in Northern Ireland, and that year 82 deaths were attributed to the conflict. The next year would be worse. The UK was still supporting the new Oman regime but elsewhere was not directly militarily involved, except of course the day to day cold war with the Soviet Union. To give some context to Middle East troubles including Oman this is a handy reference – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_modern_conflicts_in_the_Middle_East

Jimmy Carter was US President having beaten Gerald Ford in 1976. Ford of course had become President after Nixon resigned in August 1974. (pence for Trump?) The Iranian revolution would follow in 1979, with all the troubles that caused Carter. Brezhnev was the leader of the Soviet Union and would be until Nov 1982. He would be in charge when the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan in 1979 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War.

It took the Soviet Union nearly 10 years to ‘get out’ of Afghanistan. The US supported the Mujahideen including Bin Laden with advisors and weapons. The US Ambassador to Afghanistan was murdered in 1979 initially blamed on a communist group. The US, UK and others still have troops there since the October 2001 invasion, and in Iraq since March 2003. How long will it be until we completely leave both countries.

In 1978, Germany was split East and West with Berlin a split city in the East. Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, were still joined. Solidarity in Poland was still a couple of years off. The KGB was the security apparatus of the Soviet Union supporting the vassal states in the Warsaw Pact. A Bulgarian exile, Georgi Markov was murdered on a London Street by a poisoned umbrella pellet in Sept 1978. Odd murders by security services are not new.

The World Wide Web would not be invented until 1989 and have little relevance until the late 1990s. There were 16 million users world wide in 1995 when I was a military officer on an Exchange post in the USA. Now. there are over 4 Billion. The Internet of course existed in Military and scientific fields before that.

Writing this is has reminded me how much has changed personally and how little has changed world wide. Yes, names have changed and regimes have changed, but global politics is as messy as ever. We still have Middle East conflict, US Presidential politics, and rows about Europe. We can add in the mix a rising China and risk of trade wars, climate changes, and the risks from population growth. Despite the current issues it still feels a better world than watching uncollected rubbish pile on the streets whilst walking to work because of yet another strike.

One Morning In The Office Take 7

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One Morning in The Office – a satire @realdonaldtrump

"Welcome back Mr President."
"Good to be back, Air Force One's bed is too small."
"Compared to?"
"All my other beds and the hotels, even the UK Ambassador's residence was bigger."
"Do yo want me to get a bigger bed in Air Force One?"
"I've already told them to do it. The idiots claim they'll have to redesign the 747 or use that big Airbus thing they fly wings in"
"That would please the Europeans but haven't we imposed tariffs on them?"
"Yeah, still if they want me to have it they can pay for it like the wall."
"Sir, the Mexicans aren't paying for the wall. In fact, no one is paying for the wall."
"We're getting if for free?"
"No Sir. We have claimed to have built the walls that were put up in 2006 and California has added a few miles to the fences they put up years ago..."
"Zzzzzzz"
"Sir!" "Sorry I dozed off. Jet lag."
"Sir, what I wanted to ask is, what statement do you want me to put out about your meeting with Vlad."
"Did you check the thes, thees, tess, that dictionary thing?"
"The Thesaurus? Yes Sir.
"And?"
"Sir, would, would not, could, could not, should and should not, all have different meanings."
"You're sure?"
"I have it here if you want to read it?"
"Not fake news?"
"No, Sir."
"What about wouldn't and would?"
"They are opposites Sir."
"Damn, what now?"
"You'll have to apologise Sir or say you made a mistake."
"Out of context?"
"It's recorded Sir."
"Damn.... Still I can re-tweet something else afterwards, get the press running around in circles again."
"Even Fox were concerned."
"Give them another interview like we did with that British paper, that went well."
"You mean directly contradict what you said on audio and video after the event."
"Just like with Vlad. Anything from him?"
"Only the note about the extra service in the Helsinki hotel."
"What extra services?"
"The same as the Moscow hotel, it's on your preference list for that chain. The Secret Service would not let them in."
"Who told them to do that. I needed some relaxation these summits are hard."
"Remember Sir it was not a summit just a meeting to improve relations."
"Great success."
"With whom Sir?"
"All my meetings were a success."
"NATO, the UK, Germany, the EU?"
"All went perfectly. They all agreed to do what I told them."
"I'm not sure they think that."
"They don't matter. I've won the war in Syria, kicked out those Irises..."
"ISIS, Sir, Irises are flowers."
"You sure? Anyway, wall is going up, got the tax cuts done my poll ratings are up..."
"Actually they are not up."
"...Economy is great I did it all."
"Of course you did Sir."
"Who says different?"
"No one would dare Sir."
"You been watching that fake news again."
"No Sir. I read the Intelligence service brief and the report from the Federal Reserve. Mr Mueller is still investigating."
"Fake News, Fake News, Fake News. Vlad and Xi are happy."
"Actually Xi is not happy about the new sanctions."
"Why not." "He wants a bigger cut. So does Kim."
"Nice fella', A bit short. No dice, it's my deal take it or leave it. I got NATO to increase spending by buying American weapons."
"I don't think they actually agreed to that."
"I did. I tweeted that so it must be true."
"Yes Sir. There's another problem with one of your former er... acquaintances."
"Which one?"
"Karen McDougal, she was a Playboy Model."
"Which one?"
"Sir? Cohen had a tape of you and he discussing a payment to her?"
"A tape?"
"Yes Sir and the FBI have it now."
"Check that Thesaurus thing again on would and wouldn't."
"Yes Sir, anything else? I have to go and testify to the Grand Jury again."
"Yeah, more important things, can't Boeing build a bigger bed?" "Sir????"